Microsoft’s Bing or DuckDuckGo in all probability received’t disrupt Google’s dominance in search, stated Apple senior vice chairman of providers Eddy Cue — however AI providers simply might.
Cue was returning to a courtroom in Washington, DC the place he final testified within the Justice Department’s trial towards Google’s search monopoly in September 2023. During the present cures trial on Wednesday, Cue stated that within the time since, well-funded generative AI upstarts have made such important developments that they might finally disrupt that monopoly — maybe extra successfully than the court docket might.
Cue was additionally, nevertheless, there to defend a big supply of Apple’s income: the funds Google provides for default search engine placement on Apple’s Safari browser.
After the 2023 trial, Judge Amit Mehta discovered that Google illegally monopolized the net search market, partially by way of agreements just like the Safari deal. For the final two and a half weeks, Google and the DOJ have pitched Mehta on what he ought to (or shouldn’t) do to repair the issue. The DOJ says Google needs to be pressured to share beneficial search information with rivals and spin off its Chrome browser, whereas Google (which plans to attraction the sooner ruling) desires solely restrictions on the offers Mehta deemed unfairly exclusionary. And slightly than barring its Apple deal altogether, it could make Google give Apple extra flexibility to signal further default search agreements throughout its varied gadgets or in personal searching mode.
Cue argued Wednesday that fast AI developments imply the antitrust menace Mehta recognized is shrinking. For the primary time in 22 years, Cue stated, Apple noticed search quantity decline in its Safari browser final month — a facet impact of customers in search of extra data from AI chatbots. The DOJ, unsurprisingly, disagrees. It’s not unusual for technological improvement to outpace the sluggish trudge of the court docket system, however the authorities says that tempo isn’t quick sufficient to repair a persistent market problem.
Apple has lots of pores and skin within the recreation right here — the DOJ beforehand revealed it rakes in $20 billion in funds from Google yearly. Google’s proposed cures might cut back it, however they might additionally open up Apple’s choices and protect a lot of its income stream. The DOJ’s, in the meantime, might wipe out that money stream altogether. Cue appeared bewildered that Apple might get the brief finish of the stick for a punishment supposedly inflicted on Google. The concept that the court docket might determine Google did one thing improper after which let it get monetary savings at Apple’s expense, he stated, “simply appears loopy to me.”
Google might even maintain its prime Safari placement with no deal within the brief time period, Cue stated. “We don’t actually have a selection as we speak,” he testified. Even if Apple might lower a brand new default cope with one other firm, Google continues to be the most effective service out there for purchasers, so that they’d in all probability search it out — and Apple wouldn’t get a lower. Cue stated he’s “misplaced lots of sleep” over the prospect of dropping the Google deal, and warned it could impression Apple’s skill to make new merchandise.
Cue additionally instructed Mehta he “can’t say I disagree” along with his evaluation that Apple was disincentivized from constructing its personal search engine due to its cope with Google. But, he added, “we will’t do all the things,” and since Google is absolutely good at what it does, Apple prefers to give attention to areas the place it might probably supply distinctive worth.
There’s “a lot higher potential as a result of there are new entrants which are attacking the issue otherwise”
AI might finally change all of this, Cue testified. Apple is already exploring including AI search choices, although it acknowledges they’ll’t but change conventional search engines like google and yahoo. “To date, they’re simply not adequate,” he stated.
Cue stated “adequate” might come earlier than he anticipated. He stated there’s “a lot higher potential as a result of there are new entrants which are attacking the issue otherwise.” Large language mannequin (LLM) AI corporations haven’t constructed a sturdy sufficient search index to substitute for Google but, he stated, however combining an LLM with search might allow them to use a smaller index successfully quickly.
Even although he’s backing Google’s battle to maintain its search offers, he appeared to acknowledge that the DOJ’s proposal to syndicate Google’s search index might get AI rivals on top of things even quicker.
Cue cautioned the decide that tech isn’t like different industries, and giants usually fall even with out court docket intervention. “When I acquired to Silicon Valley, all the greatest corporations, or essentially the most profitable corporations, both don’t exist as we speak or are considerably smaller and fewer impactful,” Cue stated, pointing to corporations like HP, Sun Microsystems, and Intel. In the know-how discipline, being an incumbent won’t supply the identical advantages it does in different markets. “We’re not an oil firm, we’re not toothpaste. These are issues which are going to final endlessly,” he stated. “You might not want an iPhone 10 years from now.” After almost 4 many years at Apple, Cue now sees AI as “an enormous technological shift.”
Putting himself within the decide’s footwear, Cue instructed Mehta, “we’re fortunate, as a result of truthfully, if AI had not come about, I don’t know what you possibly can do.” That’s as a result of, he defined, “till there are actually aggressive merchandise, folks will maintain utilizing the most effective one.”
