2025 is probably not the yr of the foldable telephone, but when Apple lastly enters the area in 2026, we might be in for a giant turnaround.
That’s the newest message from analysts at Counterpoint Research, who defined that 2024 was a yr of virtually imperceptible foldable development and, in all probability extra worrisome, 2025 shall be down barely.
Counterpoint Research has been ringing this bell since late final yr when it produced the same report. Now, virtually 5 months into the yr, they see no indicators that 2025 will even meet 2024’s flat gross sales numbers. It’s seemingly a irritating flip of occasions for Samsung, Google, Oppo, Huawei, and Motorola, all of which are actually deeply invested within the class.
Overall, foldable telephones have by no means accounted for greater than 2% of your complete smartphone market. One issue that may be holding again the foldable market is worth. Some of one of the best folding telephones price double that of a regular flagship.
Many of those firms have but to make a compelling use case for folding telephones, other than “Do you need to have a tiny pill in your pocket that does not take up more room than a regular telephone?” [Author’s Note: Yes. Yes, I do]
While customers stay uninspired, tech firms seem no much less invested within the class. Honor and Oppo’s latest entries are serving to to develop the folding telephones’ tiny smartphone class market share, however largely outdoors the US.
Folding telephones will not disappear from our digital panorama. In truth, Counterpoint Research signifies that the market is making ready for a resurgence.
“It is unquestionably not an indication of the market peaking; slightly it’s a signal of regrouping earlier than 2026, which is predicted to be thrilling and rejuvenating for the phase with the entry of Apple and a slew of clamshells,” wrote Counterpoint Senior Analyst Jene Park.
Most rumors now level to Apple coming into the foldables market in 2026, which is a lynchpin of this resurgence.
It’s a well-recognized story.
Apple’s product class playbook is normally one the place it watches different gamers flounder round with oddball and subpar entrants. Then it swoops in with one thing stunning and seemingly apparent, a product that captivates customers and media alike.
It occurred with MP3 gamers across the flip of the century (iPod) and later with screen-focused smartphones (iPhone) after which tablets (iPad). In every case, Apple was under no circumstances the primary, however it shortly turned one of the best and most fascinating.
Foldables are considerably completely different, although, as a result of whereas the market is stagnant, the merchandise are typically thought of glorious. Sure, Samsung, Google, and others have executed themselves no favors by not at all times placing the very best cameras and know-how in each folding handset. Even so, these are in any other case glorious and versatile gadgets.
I’ve examined the Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 6 and the Google Pixel 9 Pro Fold, and I like every of them. They’re well-built, skinny, comparatively mild, highly effective, stuffed with AI, and usually enjoyable to make use of as telephones and as tiny tablets.
Yes, they are often prohibitively costly, however you realize that costs will ultimately tumble.
Apple’s entry, although, will show to be a recreation changer. I wager even Samsung, Google, and others are determined for them to enter the fray and reinvigorate the market. Counterpoint Research believes {that a} 2026 iPhone Fold will shortly eat a large chunk of the tiny folding telephone market, but in addition immediately enlarge it.
I are likely to agree with them. When I ran an anecdotal ballot on X asking who customers may purchase a smartphone from, Apple led the sphere with Samsung, which has been within the area longer than every other firm, a detailed second.
Most rumors assume that whereas Apple will carry a variety of cutting-edge options like a liquid metallic hinge and a particularly skinny chassis seemingly borrowed from the rumored iPhone 17 Air, it will not be reducing the bar on worth. Most assume the iPhone Fold might be within the $2,000 vary.
That’s lots, not Vision Pro lots, however it’ll imply {that a} easy iPhone 16 Pro trade-in will not be sufficient to defray a lot of the prices. You’ll have a excessive month-to-month fee for the pleasure of proudly owning Apple’s first foldable, and nonetheless, I feel folks will gladly pay that a lot for an iPhone Fold.
There is an opportunity that Apple may go along with a barely completely different design route with its iPhone Fold, and as a substitute of chasing the Z Fold 6 and different folding tablets, it may ship a real clamshell.
Folded, the iPhone Fold X can be the dimensions of a Z Flip 6 (however thinner). Unfolded, it could be the dimensions of an ultra-thin iPhone 16 – so the thinness of an iPhone 17 Air, however the pocketable display dimension of a 6.1-inch iPhone 16.
That can be interesting on two fronts: a extra moveable type issue and certain a way more enticing worth.
For now, it is a ready recreation. Apple hasn’t hinted at its folding plans, and there are not any indications of a shock versatile telephone unveiling in September. But WWDC 2025, Apple’s upcoming builders’ convention, is simply weeks away, and it might be the right platform to tease these plans.
Such a transfer may both flip round foldable’s 2025 fortunes or additional depress them as extra potential foldable clients determine to carry off till Apple lastly ships the iPhone Fold.
