Whether you eat eggs on uncommon events or purchase them a number of instances per week, you have seemingly seen some record-high costs. The nationwide common for a dozen eggs was $4.95 on the finish of January, and the scenario has gotten so dire that Waffle House and Denny’s have begun including a surcharge for each egg they promote.
Why are egg costs so excessive? One cause is a serious fowl flu outbreak, which has led to tens of millions of hens being culled. But whereas the fowl flu has contributed to a extreme egg scarcity, the severity of its affect is now being questioned: The US Justice Department has begun to research whether or not egg producers are purposely limiting provides, as a way to drive prices up.
There’s little question that egg costs have surged — greater than doubling in some areas over the previous six months. And the affect goes past larger prices; empty cabinets have gotten extra widespread, and a few grocery shops are actually limiting egg purchases.
If you may have eggs in your fridge, ensure you use them whereas they’re contemporary. You can discover a substitute for eggs in lots of circumstances, even should you’re baking, however it could nonetheless be irritating to go with out this kitchen staple. We’ll clarify the fowl flu’s affect on egg provides and talk about if you may begin to see the worth of eggs go down.
Read extra: Raw Cat Food Linked to Bird Flu: A Vet Shares How to Protect Your Pets From the Virus
How is fowl flu affecting the worth of eggs?
The present spike in egg costs has been pushed by a virulent pressure of fowl flu that triggered the demise of 20 million egg-laying chickens within the final quarter of 2024 alone.
According to the US Department of Agriculture, since early 2022 fowl flu has resulted in near 100 million chickens, turkeys and different poultry being killed. Most of the birds culled to cease the epidemic have been egg-laying hens, inflicting the provision of eggs to plummet and the worth to soar.
However, one strain group believes that the shortage of hens does not account for the low provide and excessive value of eggs. Farm Action, in an open letter to the Federal Trade Commission and Department of Justice, alleges that fowl flu has had solely a “minimal” impact on the worth of eggs:
While avian flu has been cited as the first driver of skyrocketing egg costs, its precise affect on manufacturing has been minimal. Instead, dominant egg producers—significantly Cal-Maine Foods—have leveraged the disaster to boost costs, amass document earnings, and consolidate market energy. The gradual restoration in flock dimension, regardless of traditionally excessive costs, additional suggests coordinated efforts to limit provide and maintain inflated costs.
In some areas, eggs aren’t precisely priced to maneuver.
The US Justice Department is now investigating the reason for the excessive costs. Its civil antitrust probe is working to find out if the egg scarcity is the results of collusion between producers and distributors similar to Cal-Maine Foods Inc. and Rose Acre Farms Inc.
Whether or not the scarcity has been exaggerated, clients appear keen to pay a premium for eggs, no less than for now. According to 1 economist, this acceptance of upper costs means there may be presently an elevated demand for eggs.
“Some egg sellers might even see this as an opportune time to set costs artificially excessive,” says David Anderson, a professor of economics and enterprise at Centre College in Danville, Kentucky. “Beyond the precise hit to produce from the lack of hens to fowl flu, the well-publicized egg shortages make shoppers extra tolerant of upper costs. This elevated willingness to pay is successfully a rise in demand that enables producers to boost costs. Such habits might maintain elevated egg costs within the brief time period.”
How can I discover cheaper eggs?
If you are on the lookout for the bottom egg costs, there are on-line sources that may assist. The web site Pantry & Larder has a web page referred to as Eggspensive that tracks the worth of a dozen eggs at Walmart shops nationwide.
Another worth tracker, The Krazy Coupon Lady, compares costs from shops across the US and compiles an inventory of the supermarkets providing the most affordable eggs. The web site has a separate part that lists weekly egg gross sales and coupon offers.
Price trackers like Pantry & Larder’s can present you the place the most affordable eggs can be found.
When may egg costs begin coming down?
There are too many unknown components for consultants to precisely predict when egg costs will drop. Severe winter climate has been one reason for the latest worth spike, however it appears to be fowl flu that is inflicting the general worth improve. The most up-to-date USDA Egg Market Overview report (PDF), printed March 7, reveals that the common worth for a dozen eggs in California was a whopping $7.57. California has been one of many states hit hardest by fowl flu.
Even so, there are causes to consider that costs will return to regular later this 12 months. Anderson thinks it’ll rely upon the fowl flu’s trajectory, in addition to changing the hens which have been culled.
“If the fowl flu outbreak doesn’t turn out to be considerably worse, I count on that egg costs will take a downward path,” says Anderson. “Over time, destroyed hen populations will likely be changed, new egg sources will seem in response to the excessive costs, and shoppers with low-to-moderate preferences for egg merchandise will adapt to substitutes, particularly within the locations with the best egg costs. These will increase in provide and reduces in demand will usher the costs decrease.”
The USDA predicts that egg costs will lower beginning within the second quarter of 2025.
The USDA has projected that egg costs will begin to lower within the spring. According to its month-to-month World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report (PDF), the worth will drop again all the way down to $3.90 per dozen within the second quarter of 2025, and all the way down to $2.90 within the third quarter. However, eggs are more likely to stay costly all through March, and costs may nonetheless improve if fowl flu circumstances proceed to unfold.
Why are eggs so costly whereas rooster costs are low?
You could also be questioning why the price of rooster has barely modified, when egg costs have gone up a lot. Shouldn’t fowl flu have an effect on each rooster and eggs equally?
The brief reply is not any: The birds that produce eggs aren’t the identical ones raised for meat. Egg-laying chickens are typically older and due to this fact extra weak to fowl flu. They do not begin laying eggs till they’re 18 weeks previous; if a flock of layers is worn out, it takes no less than six months to get better. Younger chickens raised for meat can nonetheless get fowl flu, however they are often changed after simply seven weeks.
What occurred in 2015 when fowl flu made egg costs spike?
It’s not the primary time fowl flu has triggered egg costs to rise dramatically. Back in late 2014 to June 2015, an earlier fowl flu pandemic within the US triggered the worth of eggs to just about double.
According to the USDA, greater than 50 million chickens had been killed by the fowl flu or euthanized throughout these seven months, inflicting the worth of a dozen grade A big eggs within the New York market to spike from $1.29 in April 2015 to $2.61 in August. That worth did not revert again all the way down to its former common till early 2016.
The USDA referred to as the 2014-2015 fowl flu epidemic “the biggest poultry well being catastrophe in US historical past,” however the present fowl flu epidemic that began in 2022 is even bigger — greater than 13 million chickens have been affected up to now 30 days alone.
Is fowl flu harmful to people?
Bird flu is attributable to avian influenza Type A viruses, which unfold amongst waterfowl and may infect different wild birds, home poultry and different animals. Though fowl flu hardly ever infects people, the present outbreak is answerable for 69 human circumstances within the US and one demise, as of this writing.
