Will Elon Musk publish greater than 400 tweets this week? More than 800? Estimate appropriately and you can wind up with a pleasant chunk of money should you had been to again your opinion by shopping for “shares” on Polymarket.
The typically controversial Polymarket is without doubt one of the web’s “prediction markets.” That’s a flowery – and pretty subtle – method to put your cash the place your mouth is while you really feel the urge to state an opinion on the web. Even in case your opinion is “I’ll guess Musk tweets greater than 400 instances this week.”
Indeed, the Musk tweeting “market” on the positioning is so lively that it’s been given a top-level web site hyperlink and repeats weekly. This week’s market, which ends on January 17, has already finished over $1.9 million in buying and selling quantity and it routinely hits greater than $1 million. That’s to not say you’d win that a lot cash. Your payout would rely upon what number of shares you purchased ought to your tweet-volume guess show true. (Polymarket didn’t reply to our request for touch upon how a lot cash this market has paid out.)
Site data present it’s been a weekly market since at the least June. And there’s a second one the place customers can guess on the variety of tweets ranging between 300 and 550+ in 25-tweet increments.
The discussions available on the market get severe, too, sounding considerably like horse monitor gamblers speaking about their choose of ponies. For occasion, on Tuesday, consumer “Rogu” analyzed “Current tweets per day is at 50, on tempo to hit 350. To get to 400+ he’d have to common greater than 65 per day for the remaining time. While that may be a good bit extra, it’s not *that* a lot. With the upcoming Starship check flight he is perhaps tweeting a bit greater than these previous few days.”
Rogu is referring to SpaceX’s Starship Flight 7 launch, which is scheduled for January 15.
Polymarket’s major competitor, Kalshi, additionally has an Elon Musk top-level hyperlink, but it surely hyperlinks to all kinds of wanna-bet kind opinions on Musk, starting from what his roles is perhaps within the new administration to guesses about his future internet value. (People can little question guess or purchase shares on these issues on Polymarket, too.)
But how a lot time Musk will spend on his favourite, personally owned social media web site has been an ongoing favourite. And it needs to be one of many silliest but entertaining methods individuals spend their cash on the web.
