Elon Musk had an eventful 2024, what along with his laborious push into right-wing politics and leveraging his X social media platform and appreciable affect to assist Donald Trump win the presidential election.
Putting politics apart for a second, it’s price specializing in one other Musk pastime: making guarantees for Tesla.
The Tesla CEO’s guarantees — and repeated missed deadlines — have turn into a main thread within the Tesla storyline. And they’ve all the time had an eye-popping high quality that captured the creativeness of buyers and helped drive up the worth of Tesla inventory, giving the corporate a valuation of $1.3 trillion. There was his declare in 2015 that Tesla automobiles can be self-driving in two years, that cross-country driverless road-trips can be enabled by the tip of 2017, and that Tesla homeowners would be capable to earn cash through an enormous driverless ride-hailing community in 2020.
And whereas Tesla has cemented its place in historical past books due to constructing and promoting tens of millions of electrical automobiles, not one of the above guarantees (nor many others) have come to move.
But that hasn’t stopped Musk from making extra guarantees in 2024. Here’s an accounting of these guarantees and when he expects them to turn into actuality.
The $25,000 EV
In 2024 alone, Musk pledged to unveil a $25,000 EV, then scrapped it in April to prioritize a robotaxi prototype – a choice that led to mass layoffs as Tesla pursued its “subsequent part of development.”
Musk has flip-flopped on whether or not the inexpensive EV would ever come to market. But throughout Tesla’s third-quarter earnings name, Musk stated the concept of constructing a $25,000 automobile with a steering wheel and pedals is “pointless” and “foolish.” He stated the one automobile he’d promote at that value level can be the Cybercab.
During the decision, an analyst requested if Tesla would make a lower-cost EV that’s not the Cybercab, and Musk replied that all the firm’s vehicles shifting ahead can be autonomous. He additionally stated that of the 7 million automobiles Tesla has constructed up to now, the “overwhelming majority” are “able to autonomy,” and that Tesla is “at the moment making on the order of 35,000 autonomous automobiles per week.” Musk is clearly utilizing a unfastened definition of autonomy right here, as a result of Tesla nonetheless doesn’t produce automobiles which are protected to make use of with no human behind the wheel.
(Flashback: Musk initially promised in 2016, in a since-deleted put up on Tesla’s web site, that “All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware,” and that solely a software program replace can be wanted to show common previous Teslas into self-driving vehicles. That didn’t occur, and Tesla has needed to improve vehicles with older {hardware}.)
It’s additionally price noting that in that earnings name, Musk stated that he expects car development to succeed in 20% to 30% in 2025 on account of “decrease price automobiles” and the “creation of autonomy.”
Start manufacturing on the Cybercab by 2025 or 2026
Tesla unveiled 20 Cybercab prototypes at a flashy Hollywood occasion in October, and Musk took the chance to share some plans for the automobiles, in addition to Tesla’s so-called Full Self-Driving (FSD) software program. FSD is Tesla’s superior driver help system that may carry out many automated driving duties, however nonetheless requires a human to stay attentive behind the wheel and take over if wanted.
Musk advised clients they’d be capable to someday purchase a robotaxi — a two-door, two-seat car with no steering wheel or pedals — for lower than $30,000. He additionally stated that the typical working price of the Cybercab will scale back over time to solely $0.20 per mile. And he stated Tesla would begin manufacturing on the purpose-built AVs in 2025 or 2026.
(Flashback: Musk stated in 2022 that Tesla would mass-produce robotaxis by 2024. Before that, in 2019, he stated that Tesla would have one million robotaxis on roads by 2020. Musk has promised that Tesla would resolve full self-driving “subsequent 12 months” since no less than 2016.)
A number of weeks later, throughout Tesla’s third-quarter earnings name, Musk stated Tesla would attain “quantity manufacturing in ’26,” and that the corporate was finally “aiming for no less than 2 million items a 12 months of Cybercab.”
Current federal laws that require automobiles to be constructed with sure security requirements, like guide human controls, could possibly be roadblocks for Tesla to mass produce its Cybercabs. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration not too long ago proposed new guidelines that may fast-track exemptions for such automobiles, however they’d require corporations to share extra knowledge with the company, like crash reporting. Today, automakers are required to report crashes when ADAS or autonomous driving tech is engaged.
Musk has railed in opposition to the rule earlier than, and President-elect Donald Trump’s transition crew is reportedly exploring scrapping it.
Robovan in growth
During Tesla’s robotaxi reveal, the corporate additionally confirmed buyers a Robovan prototype. At the time Musk didn’t share any concrete plans for the car, however in November he posted on X that the Robovan is in growth, together with “another issues.”
(Flashback: In 2016, Musk stated Tesla would begin constructing a minibus utilizing the Model X chassis in two to a few years.)
‘Unsupervised FSD’ and autonomous ride-hail in 2025
At the occasion, Musk additionally promised that Model 3 and Model Y homeowners would be capable to use an “unsupervised” model of FSD in California and Texas in 2025.
It wasn’t, and nonetheless isn’t, clear what Musk meant by “unsupervised” FSD. Today, Tesla’s FSD continues to be not totally autonomous, and to dispel any confusion, Tesla this 12 months started referring to the software program as “supervised FSD.” Removing the supervision might imply that Tesla plans to take away the motive force, or it might imply that Tesla plans to supply a Level 3 autonomous system that enables drivers to go hands-off, eyes-off for a portion of their journey.
During Tesla’s third-quarter earnings name, Musk took the promise of unsupervised FSD a step additional. He stated he hopes to launch a service that can let individuals hail self-driving Teslas in California and Texas in 2025. He additionally claimed Tesla had begun testing the service within the Bay Area with workers.
(Context: There are a number of tiers of permits required to check and deploy autonomous automobiles in California. Tesla has held a allow to check AVs with a security driver within the entrance seat since 2015, however the Department of Motor Vehicles advised TechCrunch in October that Tesla final reported utilizing that allow in 2019.)
It’s not clear if Tesla plans to launch this ride-hail service with its robotaxis or with present Tesla Model 3 and Model Y homeowners. Tesla’s first-quarter earnings presentation included a mock-up of a future Tesla ride-hail app, and the corporate has for years teased the concept of a ride-hailing community utilizing Teslas that had been up to date to drive totally autonomously. The concept is much like Uber, solely Tesla homeowners would add their correctly outfitted self-driving automobiles to the automaker’s ride-hailing app to make additional money when the vehicles should not in use. Tesla would take 25% to 30% of the income.
Finally, throughout Tesla’s first-quarter earnings name, Musk stated Tesla was in talks with a “main automaker” to license FSD, however up to now has not introduced any such offers.
‘Over a thousand Optimus robots working at Tesla’ in 2025
Musk has made some on the market guarantees about Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robotic. During Tesla’s annual shareholder assembly, Musk promised that Tesla would transfer into “restricted manufacturing” of the Optimus subsequent 12 months, with “over 1,000, or a number of thousand, Optimus robots working at Tesla” in 2025. He additionally stated he expects Optimus to be on sale by 2026. In a put up on X, the billionaire government added that he expects to have extra Optimus bots obtainable to be used by different corporations in 2026.
He didn’t specify if the bots can be working totally autonomously, or if they’d be remotely managed by people, as they have been throughout Tesla’s robotaxi reveal occasion in October.
(Context: While humanoid robots are enhancing to the purpose of having the ability to autonomously full particular duties, many specialists say generalized robotics continues to be years away on account of a scarcity of coaching knowledge.)
Aside from manufacturing guarantees, Musk additionally predicted that Optimus might someday elevate Tesla’s market cap to $25 trillion. That’s roughly seven occasions the present market caps of Apple and Nvidia. At the tip of December, Tesla’s market cap was round $1.42 trillion, which is sort of a 160% enhance from the $550 billion market cap earlier than Trump received the presidential election.
Have we missed something? Feel free to succeed in out to rebecca.bellan@techcrunch.com.
